Due to defeat in Kharkov region, Kremlin announces all-Russian recruitment and strengthens covert mobilization - ISW
This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to data of Institute for the study of war (ISW).
Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks in eastern Ukraine, increasing pressure on Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk and eastern Donetsk oblasts.
In this regard, analysts suggest that Russian forces in eastern Ukraine will probably find it difficult to hold their lines of defense if Ukrainian forces continue to advance further east.
The Kremlin is responding to the defeat in Kharkiv region by strengthening covert mobilization, rather than imposing conditions for general mobilization.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to begin "self-mobilization" and not to wait for the Kremlin to declare martial law.
Kadyrov said that each subject of the Russian Federation must prove its readiness to help Russia by recruiting at least 1,000 servicemen. Some governors supported such a call. And Russia-appointed head of occupied Crimea Sergei Aksyonov announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula to support Kadyrov's calls.
In addition, as ISW notes, the defeat in the Kharkov region prompted the Kremlin to announce a nationwide recruitment drive.
The Russian authorities have probably abandoned their efforts to protect individual federal subjects from recruitment, which could increase social tension.
Key conclusions of ISW experts:
- Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine.
- The Russian authorities responded to the defeat around Kharkiv region by increasing covert mobilization and recruitment, rather than by imposing conditions for general mobilization.
- The Kremlin likely withdrew a significant portion of the forces originally stationed at Russian bases in the former Soviet states after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.\
- Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ground attacks by Ukrainian troops northwest of the city of Kharkiv, near the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Ingulets River, and south of the border of Kherson and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
- Russian-appointed occupation officials and bloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops blew up a landing on the Kinburn Spit.
- Russian troops have conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions in the eastern direction.
- The so-called Donetsk People's Republic ("DNR") is probably trying to stop its administrators from fleeing before a Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the "DNR."
