Next few weeks will determine whether Ukraine can continue to exist as sovereign state - Washington Post
Ukraine is currently at risk of losing the war, but a bad deal imposed by Donald Trump could be worse, as a settlement at the expense of Ukrainian territory would reward Putin and undermine trust in the US.
According to Censor.NET, this is stated in an editorial by The Washington Post
"The next few weeks will determine whether Ukraine can continue to exist as a sovereign state within its preinvasion borders, or close to them, with full security guarantees for its citizens — or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will be rewarded and emboldened in his war of territorial expansion," the newspaper notes.
The publication emphasises that the way the conflict is resolved will affect processes far beyond Ukraine and even Europe.
"At stake is the credibility of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which immediately aided Ukraine after Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion and vowed to continue their support 'as long as it takes' to defeat Russian aggression," the publication says.
Backing down at this stage would mean that the US and its allies lack stamina and that their promises are only valid until the next election. It could also send a signal to China, where its authoritarian leader Xi Jinping is considering an armed takeover of the democratic island of Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is experiencing serious losses, primarily of its human potential. However, the most valuable resource for Ukrainians is time.
"President-elect Trump takes office on 20 January and has promised to end the war quickly, but has offered no specific details of a plan," the newspaper continues.
In fact, Trump has made contradictory statements, including about cutting aid to Ukraine, although he said he would not leave it to its fate. The media quoted some representatives of the transition as suggesting a ceasefire along the frontline, the deployment of European troops as peacekeepers, and a 20-year freeze on Ukraine's NATO membership prospects. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov categorically rejected these ideas on 29 December.
The other timeframe for Ukraine is the growing fatigue in Europe and the desire in its capitals to end the conflict, which is consuming many scarce military resources.
"Europeans are quietly shifting to the idea of negotiations based on a "land-for-peace" formula as the best way to resolve the war in the event of a U.S. aid cutoff," the newspaper notes.
Ukraine is unlikely to survive another year of this devastating war, the publication says. However, rushing to find a negotiated settlement could lead to a bad outcome. Putin could be rewarded for his aggression and occupation and prepare for new Russian attacks against more territory when the Kremlin has a chance to restore its depleted arsenal.
"A poor settlement would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family members killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western backers who betrayed them. This is a fight America, and Ukraine, cannot lose, especially with a bad deal," the newspaper concludes.
As a reminder, the next US presidential administration will hold a conference on Ukraine in the near future.
