War in Ukraine could spiral into frozen conflict. That is dangerous - Times
The war in Ukraine may be frozen, and in such a scenario, a new Russian attack may be only a matter of time.
According to Censor.NET, The Times reports.
President Donald Trump may have reneged on his campaign promise to end the war waged by Russia in 24 hours, but the 100 days he gave his special envoy Keith Kellogg to resolve the conflict made the prospect of it being frozen even more likely.
"The history of frozen conflicts is not a happy one. They arise when the guns fall silent, sometimes through a formal ceasefire or simple exhaustion, sometimes through painstaking peacekeeping that is presented as a solution to the problem to the wider world but is not approved by one side or the other, leaving open the constant threat of a return to arms," the newspaper writes and cites the examples of the DPRK and South Korea, Kosovo and Serbia, North and South Vietnam.
The Times notes that frozen conflicts are one of the favorite tools of Russian foreign policy in its post-Soviet struggle to maintain spheres of influence, but with mixed results.
According to Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, Ukraine should be lucky, because Trump, known for his impatience, has put his reputation as a negotiator on the line. The professor expressed confidence that Trump does not really care about Ukraine, but wants to be recognized for ending the fighting and declare himself a peacemaker.
O'Brien also does not find Trump's threats against Russia convincing and emphasizes that the US president is positioning himself as a mediator, not a guarantor.
At the same time, Ukrainians are well acquainted with the scenario of a frozen conflict that may eventually flare up with renewed vigor, the publication reminds, referring to the collapse of the so-called Minsk agreements.
Recently, The Times analysts named four scenarios for the end of the war. They excluded the unlikely scenarios of the sudden death of dictator Vladimir Putin or the unexpected success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. It is also noted that much depends on the new US President Donald Trump.
