Ar-missile battle for Kyiv: why is Russia stepping up its strikes?

1. 1. What is the enemy's objective? The main target of the enemy is radars and air defence missile systems. Strikes on residential buildings or urban infrastructure are also an element of provoking air defence actions.

2. Why is Kyiv being targeted? Kyiv is being attacked because it is the capital, a place that we have to defend with significant air defence forces because of the large population and infrastructure and defence facilities. If the attacks on Kyiv stop, Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems may end up somewhere else, and it would be more profitable for the Russians to have our Patriots shoot down the Daggers rather than to have a new Bryansk rally. Let me remind you that on 13 May, unknown anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Su-34 bomber, a Su-35S fighter and two Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helicopters in the skies over the Bryansk region, killing all 11 crew members. That is why the strikes on Kyiv are important for the enemy as a constraint on our air defence system, so that our forces can focus on defensive tasks.

3. How do Russian terrorists operate? The attacks are carried out in several waves, from different directions and heights, for several hours, sometimes repeated day and night. At the same time, decoy targets are launched in the form of X-55 cruise missiles, which do not carry a warhead but are intended to trigger air defence radars and help determine their radiation. Dozens of Shahed drones are also launched on different trajectories. When the air defence system starts working, the enemy determines the coordinates of the targets and tries to hit the positions of the radar and air defence systems with cruise and ballistic missiles "Iskander-M", "Iskander-K", "Kinzhal", "Kalibr", X-101, as well as anti-radar missiles of various types launched from ground launchers and aircraft on duty in anticipation of the coordinates of the targets. Obviously, the enemy is trying to ensure that air defence radars and anti-aircraft missile systems operate for a long time, so that they cannot quickly change positions due to the need to repel a new wave of attacks.

4. Why at night? The time of the attack is primarily determined by the time when the enemy concentrates the maximum number of its intelligence assets, i.e. both electronic intelligence and space satellites. The long operating time of radars from one point makes it possible for electronic intelligence to pinpoint positions, force the use of the available stock of anti-aircraft missiles, and enable them to be hit by various types of weapons, primarily anti-radar missiles that are homing in on the radiation source themselves. Satellites can detect missile launches. Intelligence is also important to the enemy if it receives video and photos of air defence systems quickly, optimally online, and can use them to adjust new shock waves.

5. 5. How long will it last? Russia will continue to strike Kyiv and other important strategic cities for a long time, it is a terrorist country. But we still do not have enough air defence radars and anti-aircraft missile systems to make our air defence dense and impenetrable, unfortunately, our state did nothing to strengthen and develop air defence forces before the war, and we depend on the pace of supply by our allies.

6. What to do? The main thing for us is not to bind our air defence with the task of dying in positions, but to conduct operations while maintaining the ability to manoeuvre, look for favourable positions and change them quickly, avoiding retaliatory strikes. It is important to create all the opportunities for high-quality operation of sophisticated military equipment, for rest and combat readiness of the calculations, for daily analysis of the enemy's actions and intelligent planning of further actions. We need to divert Russian missiles to false targets, i.e. comprehensive measures to disguise and disinform the enemy (we are severely underperforming here). The main problem in war is not always equipment or soldiers, but rather command and administration. The mere presence of unattacked air defence is a constant threat to the Russians, a "fleet in being" that distracts much larger Russian forces. In modern warfare, there is no absolute security in the rear. And these missiles will still fly at someone - either at our defenders at the front or at our cities. Someone somewhere will still not sleep, but someone somewhere will have a break. Everyone has to endure.

7. Conclusions. In general, the air and missile battle for Kyiv, where Russia's best precision weapons and best electronic and space intelligence are pitted against the best NATO-developed systems in service with Ukrainian air defence, is developing in a favourable scenario for Ukraine. The vast majority of Russian missiles and drones are being successfully shot down, while the enemy failed to destroy a single radar or anti-aircraft missile system in the Kyiv area in May. Yes, there was damage and close calls, but none of this was fatal. Unfortunately, the enemy is destroying the city, but other cities are suffering no less.

From a political and media perspective, Russia's barbaric terrorist attacks on the European capital are a clear demonstration of what Putin will do to other European capitals if everything possible is not done to defeat him in Ukraine.

Yuriy Butusov, Censor.net