Economic protests or Russia’s special operation: who is really behind the border blockade

In addition, according to Taras Kachka, Ukraine's Trade Representative, the blockade could affect critical energy supplies for Ukraine, which suffers from constant Russian attacks. Therefore, Kyiv hopes to hold negotiations with Poland and the European Union this week. But even if they lead to certain agreements, the problem is unlikely to be solved globally, because blockades can be repeated both on this and on other borders. And the blockade that began on the border with Slovakia, although it has now been stopped, only confirms this.

Therefore, we decided to find out how to not only lift these blockades, but also prevent them in the future, so that Ukrainian manufacturers and carriers do not suffer losses, and with them the country's economy.

PANDORA'S BOX IS OPEN

Describing a recent visit to the Ukrainian-Polish border on his Facebook page, Deputy Minister for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine Serhii Derkach notes that he visited two of the three blocked checkpoints, where there are no more than 15 protesters in total. "In fact, a dozen people are holding the border hostage," he said. Who are these people and why do they manage to keep about three thousand cars at the border for so long? Why are the Polish authorities and the Polish law enforcement agencies not responding in any way to the tension they have created at the border? However, the European Commission has warned Poland that if the blockade is extended, it is ready to impose fines for violations of European law.

"The blocking of Ukrainian trucks was organized by the leader of the far-right Ruch Narodowy party Rafael Mekler," journalist Yevhen Plinskyi writes. "His party is also in the coalition of the Eurosceptic Union "Konfederacja". Until 2022, Mekler's party supported cooperation with Russia, rejected the threat posed by Putin, and actively opposed Poland's rapprochement with the United States and Germany. The leader of "Konfederacja", which includes Meckler's Ruch Narodowy party, Janusz Korvin-Mikke called the "DPR"(Donetsk People's Republic) and "LPR" (Luhansk People's Republic) independent states and recognized the occupied Crimea as Russian.

Given such politicization, the protesters' demands are not too surprising. We are talking about a whole "package" - from the abolition of the so-called transport visa-free regime to the suspension of licenses for transport companies that opened in Poland after February 24 last year, where Ukrainian citizens are among the founders. At the same time, these so-called strikers are well aware that the demands they make are impossible to fulfill. And the European Commission has publicly confirmed this.

"This is outright blackmail on their part. I had a conversation with Leonid Kostiuchenko, the head of the Association of International Carriers of Ukraine, who told me that these so-called strikers who are now blocking the border have 1% of the transport market in Poland. They show their strength, and they say, how cool we are. In fact, they have a miserable amount among road transport, - said in a comment "Censor.NET" by the former head of the State Customs Service of Ukraine Anatolii Makarenko. "But today some are blocking, tomorrow - others, the day after tomorrow - someone else. And do we have to make concessions to everyone? We will not have enough concessions.

Pandora's box is open, and if we give in now, others will say: "Let's demand something else from Ukraine." Therefore, we have no choice but to appeal to the authorities of Poland and Brussels to restore order. A blockade is an abnormal situation. The closure of transport corridors is a problem for the European community.

He also recalled the blockages that Russia once arranged for Ukraine. They blocked everything possible, from milk to gas. One of these situations, when he was the head of the State Customs Service, occurred in the summer of 2014. Then the Russians, referring to the decision of the Chief Sanitary Doctor, stopped all cars carrying dairy products at the border.

"I called the head of the Russian customs service – at that time we were still trading partners and it could be done – and I told him that I would not let a single truck from the Russian side into Ukraine now," Makarenko recalls. "He told me: 'You don't have the right, you don't have any ban. And I have a ban on the sanitary doctor."

I answered, "And I have my personal will to look for drugs or other illegal substances in every truck. We will disassemble them down to the last detail. And when the tail of your line hits the Kremlin, you'll be the first to call me. And it is not I who will ask you, but you who will ask me."

It was an absolutely normal delicate conversation, but I said that I was responding synchronously to the situation they created at the border."

Anatolii Makarenko emphasized that we should not yield to pressure and negotiate at our expense, but rather negotiate on parity.

Volodymyr Balin, Vice President of the Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine, agrees that this is blackmail, in which Russia may be involved. "They reject all proposals voiced by the Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development. They demand something that is not within the competence of either Ukraine or Poland — the return of permits. This is the competence of the European Union only. As I understand it, the Russian aggressor is behind all this," he believes. — The action is supported by the Konfederačja party, it is pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian. And the cars that are now blocking our border used to go to Russia and Belarus. Since they have closed this border, they decided to block us."

Answering the question of what will happen if they stand for several months, as announced, he explained: "If they stand for at least another month, we will end the financial year, because after December 20, no one goes anywhere. Europe is already celebrating, and exporters have to close their contracts, what they planned to export, and importers, in turn, have to import. Carriers also suffer economically, because instead of making and earning, they suffer losses."

According to him, you can go through those checkpoints that are not blocked, but it will definitely not be fast. "Cars go through the Shehyni-Medyka checkpoint, but it allows a maximum of 250 cars per day, and the Dorohusk-Yahodyn checkpoint would allow 600, Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska - 300, Krakivets-Korczova - 500. That is, it is unrealistic to compensate for all these blockages."

The fact that the action is politicized is also stated by the owner of the enterprise "Textile-contact" Oleksandr Sokolovskyi. "Special operations are not only at the front. It turns out that you can do without missiles, drones and human losses. And compared to military spending, even for very meager money. With this money (I think it's not more than $10 million), the Russians very successfully bought some Polish figures and were able to cause us huge losses! Which are increasing every day, and also cut off Ukrainian exporters from the world market for a long time.

There is a huge problem that our government seems to underestimate. But a few more weeks like this — and the Ukrainian economy will almost collapse. I am sure that if literally now all our high-ranking officials — Ambassador to Poland, Foreign Minister, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Deputy Prime Ministers Oleksandr Kubrakov and Yuliia Sviridenko, and even the President of Ukraine - do not join in solving the problem of blocking the Polish-Ukrainian border right now through their channels of influence, then the collapse of the economy will follow the collapse of transport logistics and most of it will collapse. Because the situation is getting worse every day and is already turning into full-fledged sabotage without destruction and shelling," he stressed.

Since the negotiations with Polish carriers from the Ukrainian authorities are being conducted by Serhii Derkach, the correspondent of Censor.NET contacted him for comments. But he redirected me to his assistant, and she advised me to read his page on Facebook. Obviously, to add to what is written there, there is nothing for the profile deputy so far. Therefore, what will be the next steps of the Ukrainian authorities is currently unknown. As for business, he expects Poland's central-level authorities to cancel strike permits issued by local self-government bodies in the two voivodeships. Another way is to go to court. How realistic it is to do this under Polish laws, we asked the lawyer.

ARE THERE GROUNDS FOR LAWSUITS?

Yaroslav Romanchuk is a lawyer, investor, employer, taxpayer in both Poland and Ukraine. The law firm, of which he is a co-owner, has been operating in both countries since 2006 and today it is the largest Polish-Ukrainian law firm. At the same time, he is also the chairman of the board of the Association of Ukrainian Business in Poland, which unites more than 120 companies. These are Polish companies, where the founders and residents are citizens of Ukraine. Most of these companies are trading platforms of our manufacturers.

"Censor. NET has already reported that from the first days of the border blockade, representatives of the association held a press conference, where they said that they addressed the Polish authorities with letters about urgent meetings to discuss the situation on the Polish-Ukrainian border. We spoke with Yaroslav Romanchuk by phone to find out if there was any reaction to these appeals and what can be done next for companies that suffer losses due to the blocking organized by Polish carriers.

— What is the current situation and what is the association doing to achieve the unblocking of the border?

— On the second day of the strike, we officially prepared a letter to Polish President Andrzej Duda, in which we asked not only for an urgent meeting but also described our initiative to create a permanent platform that could work under his patronage in the format of a "round table". At this "round table", in our opinion, should be Polish and Ukrainian businesses, employers' organizations and representatives of the governments of the two countries. Because what is happening now on the border is an extremely important and critical issue, but it is only the beginning. And on the way to joining the EU, we will have many more such questions and problems.

Unfortunately, it was a great surprise for us that today no representative of the Polish state or law enforcement agency has given a legal assessment of the actions of those who have declared a strike and are actually blocking not only the roads that carry out international traffic but also border crossings.

In addition, on the same day, we sent an official letter from the association to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawecki requesting an urgent meeting with Ukrainian investors in order to discuss this situation. So far we have no answer from either the Prime Minister or the President. Also on November 20, we sent a letter to the newly elected Marshal of the Sejm, Mr. Szymon Hołownia.

— Yaroslav, I understand that you are a Ukrainian lawyer, but I ask. Is it now possible under Polish law to apply to carriers or business representatives who suffer losses as a result of this situation?

— In addition to being a Ukrainian lawyer, I am also in the Polish register of foreign lawyers.

Now we are primarily approached by carriers, represented by the Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine (ASMAP of Ukraine) regarding what can be done in the legal field. I said that at the press conference. There are two questions. The first is to unlock the border. The second is compensation for losses caused to the economy of Ukraine and Ukrainian businesses. To date, we have not seen any official documents, so through lawyer requests, we will contact the gmina (municipality-ed.) and request them. Having received it, we will analyze two main priority documents. The first is the statements of those persons who applied for this event, what they requested, what their requirements were. The second point is that we will analyze the decisions of the (municipality-ed.) — local self-government bodies that issued permits or gave consent to the holding of citizens, in what place and whether there was permission to block border crossings. It is these documents that we will analyze. After the analysis, we will make a decision, give recommendations, on whether there are grounds for lawsuits. Although we understand that in this case there is already a violation of the Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union on the so-called transport visa-free regime, as well as the Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Poland and the Government of Ukraine on border crossing.

Now about the issue of compensation for the damage caused by this blocking. Respondents may be: the State of Poland, local self-government bodies represented by the municipalities, as well as those entities that submitted applications for this event and those directly involved in blocking transport routes and border crossings.

-Who can file such claims? Each company separately or should it be a lawsuit from the state of Ukraine?

— The state is a separate topic, at this stage, we are not considering it. Therefore, it may be the business entities that suffer losses. These can be individual companies or some associations of companies.

In my opinion, it would be worthwhile to consolidate the efforts of not only carriers, but also Ukrainian exporting producers.

At the press conference, I reminded everyone that on September 14 it was 30 years since the governments of Ukraine and Poland signed an agreement on the promotion and protection of investments. And Article 6 of this agreement provides, in particular, for compensation for damage.

— In your opinion, why is there no reaction of the Polish authorities to what is happening? At least I have not seen any public statements from either the president or the prime minister.

This is very strange and it is difficult for me to comment here. Maybe it's because it's a transitional stage to some extent when some people are leaving and others have not yet arrived. Because elections were held in Poland, and now the country is at the stage of forming a new government. I will not give an assessment, I do not know.

— Have you studied the situation described by Polish carriers when they talk about the problems that are allegedly created by the cancellation of permits and this transport visa-free regime?

— According to the information we receive from Polish businesses, from journalists, a very small group of carriers is involved in the blocking. We have not heard a single statement in support of this strike from major Polish carrier organizations.

— If the Polish government does not react to this situation, and the blockade will last for several months, as promised by its organizers, then what should we do?

— Poland for 2022 and for 9 months already this year is the largest trading partner of Ukraine. And Poland exports a lot of its products to Ukraine. In Poland, businesses are also interested in having the border unlocked. And there have already been healthy voices that the blockade does nothing, it harms Polish businesses in particular. This was said at an international forum on November 15. And Mykhailo Pankiv gave an example at the press conference. They export dairy products to many countries of the world. 30% of exports go to Poland. And one of the items they export is casein. In Poland, casein is not produced. Therefore, Polish businesses and Polish production also lost out due to this blockade. And such positions, I think, are enough. From the point of view of common sense, there is no economic justification for such actions at the border.

In addition, I also want to pay attention to one of the requirements of Polish carriers, which even the Ukrainian government does not mention. They demand a ban on registering companies in Poland where the founders are, among other things, residents of Ukraine, and demand that the licenses of those transportation companies already operating in the Polish market be revoked as the same employers and taxpayers as Polish carriers. Aren't these absurd demands?

ARE POLES INTERESTED IN THE UKRAINIAN MARKET?

"Carriers in Poland are not having a very good time right now. They have lost the Belarusian market, the Russian market, now they are trying to win our market - to go here, - says Anatolii Makarenko. "But the Poles do not want to go to Kharkiv, to Odesa, to Mykolaiv. They are afraid. They say that we will manage the border regions and do our business here, while you go to war.

So I think we need to sit down at the negotiating table and resolve this issue. But this is the task of the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which, in my opinion, "slept through" this situation. Because it was known about it since October 25. It was then that Polish carriers warned that they would block the border. It started on November 6."

According to Makarenko, even if the parties agree now, not only tactical decisions are important, but also strategic ones. "We need to think not only about today but also about tomorrow. Marine logisticians have already come out with a proposal, they say: we are ready to open sea corridors. And it is not difficult to calculate how many twenty-ton trucks can be loaded into a ship of ten thousand tons. This ship can fulfill the daily rate of the entire land border. Therefore, one should not expect that tomorrow there will be a new bloc, and the state must now look again towards the sea. To Romania, to Turkey, to how we can deliver our cargo there. Because today these blockers, tomorrow — others," he concludes.

As a person who is well versed in sea transportation, Viktor Berestenko, president of the Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine, notes that two-thirds of all that Ukraine exported and imported before the start of the full-scale invasion went by sea. Today, everything that could have been handled in ports before creates an additional burden on the land border. And even if the Ukrainian and Polish sides can now agree and unlock the checkpoints, this will not affect the situation with trade turnover in general.

"Do you understand that the situation against our free trade will only get worse over time? Because our neighboring countries also want to make money on it," Berestenko says. "We are not competitive on world markets due to the fact that the existing cost of logistics through Poland kills any economy. It is unprofitable for the manufacturer to sell because logistics "eats up" the margin. If we compare a Polish company that produces the same product with a Ukrainian one, the Polish one will be more competitive, since it spends significantly less on logistics. This is very important. I have repeatedly written that battles are won by the army, and wars are won by logistics.

Therefore, the only way out is the restoration of ferry and container traffic on the big water (ports "Odesa", "Pivdennyi" and "Chornomorsk"). Just 10 vessels could reduce the load on the land border by half or more. This process could be launched by Ukrainian shipping companies (both public and private), which have their own vessels and can take foreign ones into operation," he said.

Answering the question of how to motivate companies and whether this is possible taking into account all the risks associated with the war, Berestenko explains: "The risks are only shelling and mines. But during the movement, they hardly fire because, as far as I know, they do not have those rockets. However, I could be wrong. But it is important that there are as many ports and points as possible where the ship can enter.

Why are ferry and container lines not coming in now? If their ship is hit by a missile when it enters a Ukrainian port, the capitalization of their shares in the market will sink so much that they have not earned so much in Ukraine since the first entry. Therefore, we need the Ukrainian Danube Steamship and Ukrainian business to charter a vessel and put the transportation on stream.

As far as I know, the insurance company confirmed the payment of the insurance risk in the case of a vessel in which a rocket recently arrived. This suggests that shipowners take risks, but they are compensated. Further, it is necessary to find out whether they really deliberately aimed at the vessel or not.

In conclusion, I will say this: of course, there will be risks. But this is the recovery of the economy, the inflow of funds to the budget, this is development. Without it, we will not be able to move forward and win the war."

Interlocutors of the publication mostly say that this demonstrative show of strength on the part of a group of Polish carriers is also an attempt to demonstrate to Ukraine that the Ukrainian market is important for them, but they want to work on it on their own terms.

"My opinion that they are not ready to abandon the Ukrainian market is based on their demands," says UA.CONSULTING expert on the practical application of customs legislation and former head of Lviv Customs Levko Prokipchuk, who registered a petition on the application of sanctions to persons involved in the blocking of points Pass in Poland. - They have six conditions. Two of them clearly say that they are not ready to give up the Ukrainian market, although they say that they are not interested and we compete with them only in Europe. One of their requirements is to make an e-queue exclusively for Polish cars in Ukraine at one of the checkpoints. If they do not want to go to Ukraine, then why do they need an e-queue only from Polish cars?

Another requirement is to give Polish carriers access to the Shliakh system. Why do they need it? Before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, many Ukrainian drivers who traveled to Ukraine worked in the companies of Polish carriers. After February 24, when they banned travel abroad, especially for drivers aged 18 to 60, they cannot leave unless they are registered in the "Shliakh" system. Ukrainian carriers have access to this system. And when they carry out transportation, they enter their own driver, while Poles cannot. It is obviously cheaper and easier for them to hire a Ukrainian driver who is ready to go to Ukraine because not every Pole will be ready to do this now. Especially if we talk about something further beyond Lviv, Lutsk or Uzhhorod. If they are not interested in the Ukrainian market, then why do they need access to this system?

I do not believe that it is necessary to prohibit the entry of all Polish carriers. I had no such intentions when I registered the petition. We are talking only about those who are currently blocking the border and organizing this blockade. Reacting to it, Raphael Meckler began to write that if they were banned from entering Ukraine, they would initiate to ban those who supported the petition. It affects him as much as it affects me.

And the fourth important thing. The most active in the blockade were carriers from the Lublin Voivodeship, the main activity of which was transportation to Russia and Belarus. And since they can not go there now, they are looking for where else they can go. And obviously, the issue of the cost of transportation becomes relevant. Simple math. Recently talking with a friend, he said: "It costs me 1,5 thousand euros to bring a container from China to Gdansk, and from Gdansk to Ukraine — 4 thousand euros. Do you realize how economically profitable it has become to engage in such transportation now, in particular, because of the blockade?

In addition, they have another serious requirement that is worth paying attention to. They want to ban the registration of carriers with non-European capital. Why do they make such a demand? In them, it sounds like our Ukrainian carriers carry out transportation in Europe and in this way, they seem to knock them out. But in fact, it is not quite correct and correct. Because our carriers are theoretically not allowed to carry out cabotage transportation (i.e., load in Europe and transport goods to another point in the EU), and if they are caught doing so, they will be fined very heavily. How do our carriers overcome this situation? They simply register a company in Poland and carry out transportation no longer as a Ukrainian carrier but as a Polish one. Again, all these Eastern European transport companies made a good profit when they sold their old truck fleet to Ukraine because our demand for vehicles increased significantly during the war, and due to this they renewed their truck fleet."

Prokipchuk also drew attention to the fact that with the beginning of the full-scale phase of the war, the number of transport by land has increased greatly, since now due to the aggression of Russia, sea transport is actually blocked. "There was information that since the Russian attack, a million flights have been made from Europe to Ukraine and back. This includes the delivery of humanitarian goods. And by February 24, 2022, the number of permits issued per year on the route "Ukraine-Poland" and back was 160 thousand. So maybe we would reinstate the permits, but they just won't give us 800 thousand or a million permits. And we will not be able to bring what is needed to a country that continues to fight the enemy."

He also reminded us that European roads are not free for trucks, and they make money on our carriers, boosting their economies.

How long can the blockade on the border with Poland last? Some of the interlocutors of the publication believe that it could end or go from the street to the offices at the end of November when the 14-day term of the mandate that Duda gave Moravetskyi to form a government expired since the blockade could also be a certain tool in the political bidding for seats for members of the party that supports blockade.

In any case, it is difficult to disagree with Anatolii Makarenko that Pandora's box is open. On Tuesday evening in the territory of Slovakia, carriers began blocking trucks traveling through a single checkpoint with Ukraine, but, as Censor.NET told the State Border Service, at night it became known that it was temporarily stopped. What it means temporarily, whether the lock can be renewed, who started it and why, is currently unknown.

Now the question is who will be next. The Polish carriers' website has published a statement addressed to the European Commission, which, in addition to Slovak and Polish carriers, also includes Czech, Hungarian, and Lithuanian carriers.

Therefore, it is necessary to react not only situationally, but systematically, thinking ahead, in order to maintain friendly relations with the countries that have supported Ukraine since the first days of the invasion and to preserve our economy.

Tetiana Bodnia, Censor.NET