Strategic operation against Russian oil industry - success of tactics, weapons and command
Russian air defense put up a desperate fight, but thanks to good planning, coordination and high-quality Ukrainian-made drones, our soldiers hit 10 oil refinery plants, 1 gas liquefaction and processing plant, and 1 regional power plant. Previously, Russia had suffered only one strategic blow to its economy during the war - in 2022, unknown persons blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which Russia used to blackmail Europe and receive excessive profits from the EU.
However, Ukrainian drone strikes open up new and great opportunities to wage economic warfare against Russia, to hit Russian infrastructure and industry on a much larger scale.
The results of the strikes
They were partially or completely shut down:
1. 1. Tuapse refinery.
2. 2. Nizhny Novgorod refinery.
3. 3. Ryazan refinery.
4. 4. Novokuibyshevsky refinery.
5. 5. Syzran refinery.
6. 6. Sloviansk refinery.
7. 7. Ilyich Oil Refinery.
8. 8. Volgograd refinery.
9. 9. Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery.
10. 10. Kuibyshev Oil Refinery.
11. 11. Ust-Luz LNG plant.
12. Novocherkasskaya GRES power plant (transformer substations).
The most vulnerable parts of the refinery, the distilling towers, were chosen for precision strikes. Ukrainian experts estimate the direct damage from the destruction of valuable equipment at around $1.5 billion.
Indirect losses - a drop in the capacity of the Russian oil industry is estimated at more than 70 million tons per year, which is more than 25% of all Russian capacities. This has led to:
- increase in petrol prices in Russia by up to 50%;
- closure of gasoline exports from the Russian Federation (budget losses for six months of USD 2 billion plus USD 4 billion shortfall for oil companies);
- reduction of production by 500 thousand barrels per day (losses for the year may amount to up to 12 billion US dollars);
- a significant reduction in fuel supplies to the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine.
New tactics and weapons
This high efficiency was made possible by a clear task statement by Supreme Commander-in-Chief V. Zelenskyy (strange as it may sound, but for the first time during the war, it is worth noting the adequacy and responsibility of the Head of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief) and the combination of several defense structures and a drone manufacturer. For the first time during the war, various government agencies organized themselves, provided funding for a batch of long-range drones, a plan for their use, and coordination of several defense structures at once. An unprecedented event.
For the first time, state budget funds were allocated to finance the production of the "Fury" attack drone, a Ukrainian analog of the Iranian "Shahed".
"Fury" was developed a year ago in 2023, on an initiative, without a state order, but for a long time there was no attention to this project and no proper funding. But in January 2024, funding and mass production began. The Fury drones with a 50 kg warhead have shown their high combat effectiveness and reliability, resistance to all electronic warfare systems of the Russian Armed Forces and long range. The Kuibyshev Oil Refinery was hit at a distance of 900 km, and this is a straight line range, and drones are not launched in a straight line, so the real range is much higher.
The attacks were effective because, for the first time during the war, the SSU, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, and the Armed Forces acted in a coordinated manner, both in planning the operation and in conducting reconnaissance, preparing drones and operators, and determining tactics and procedures.
For the first time, a single coordination center has been identified, and it is the center of the Unmanned Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have just been created but are already producing the first results.
It is important to note the role of the Army of Drones and the Ministry of Digital Transformation in the implementation of the program.
I congratulate all participants and leaders of the operation and wish to increase the scale of strikes against Russia tenfold. The enemy must be held accountable for the destruction of the Ukrainian economy. The US and EU sanctions have failed to reduce the value of Russian exports in two years, but Ukrainian drones have reduced Russian exports in two months. And all of this was done at a meager cost with a small number of drones.
This successful operation of our state could become an example of actions in other areas of warfare.
Yurii Butusov, Censor.NET