Woman is on stake... or on roll: Whether Svyrydenko will replace Shmyhal

This was reported yesterday by Ukrainska Pravda, with reference to sources.

"The president is tired of Shmyhal, and this is evident in his attitude at meetings. He doesn't even listen to him anymore. It's more of an emotional thing than a miscalculation..." the source said.

According to the sources, Shmyhal may be replaced by the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Minister of Economy Yuliia Svyrydenko.

Earlier, information about his possible dismissal was also shared by Voice People`s Deputy Yaroslav Zhelezniak.

However, the deputy noted that this could be changed many times before the next session week when the issue is scheduled to be put to a vote.

Censor.NET investigated whether Shmyhal's premiership, which lasted the longest of all Ukrainian government leaders and fell on the worst periods - the Covid and the full-scale invasion - is really over.

On the one hand, the dismissal of the prime minister becomes a kind of media support for the second NATO summit. Similar rumors about his dismissal were shared before and after the summit in Vilnius. However, at that time, Shmyhal was promised to be replaced by another woman, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova.

There were no extraordinary reasons related to the prime minister's work either then or now.

On the other hand, according to conversations with People`s Deputies and people close to the Office, this time Shmyhal is indeed much closer to being fired.

"Most likely so. I heard about Svyrydenko a month before it appeared in the press. And she really wants it. That's why she has been very careful in recent months. It could have been Markarova. But she wants to form the entire Cabinet on her own. But she will not be allowed to do so. And the work of the ambassador compared to the work of the prime minister is now just happiness," one of the interlocutors of the publication shared his insights.

"What UP wrote about the president's fatigue is true. At the last meetings, he really reacted emotionally and interrupted. Those who have been in this circle for a long time already perceive such an attitude as the beginning of the end," said another official.

It is not yet clear what the official reason for the dismissal will be.

"The unofficial word I heard is that he allegedly did not agree with the ambassadors on the BES law as he promised. And this caused irritation," says the source.

However, Zhelezniak disagrees with this version. "I know how everything went with this law, and it's definitely not a question of Shmyhal," the People`s Deputy said.

As you know, last month the Rada adopted a law on the Bureau of Economic Security, which provides for a reboot of this body. Among other things, a six-member commission, half of whom are international experts with a casting vote, will select the new head (the previous competition was conducted by Ukrainians and its result was actually determined by Tymofii Mylovanov).

Theoretically, the issue of Shmyhal's dismissal could be voted on as early as the next plenary week, which has been postponed to July 15 due to the NATO summit.

"I am convinced that in the near future the Verkhovna Rada will return to personnel issues and our task is to fill the government," Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said on 30 June.

The parliament has little to say about rotations but acknowledges that it is a topic.

"A woman is on stake... or on a roll" one of the interlocutors joked.

The people's deputies predict that the vote to dismiss the prime minister and appoint a new one could be quite difficult, and many different nuances will come to light at this point.

"At such moments, there is no question of votes. There will be votes. But I have talked to many people in recent days, and the main problem now is that there is no explanation: "why," Zhelezniak said.

He also does not believe that the prime minister will be replaced in the next two weeks.

At the same time, there is another problem - it is not clear whether the issue of the missing 5 ministers will be resolved.

For example, there has been no one for the Minister of Culture for a year. They were looking for someone bright to fill this position, but in the meantime, Rostyslav Karandieiev will have to be appointed as acting minister. The situation is not better with the Minister of Sports and the Minister of Veterans Affairs.

The former Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov was scheduled to be replaced the day after his dismissal, on 9 May (in fact, he was only fired on that day).

Instead, as of early July, it was not clear who would get this appointment.

A month ago, the main favorite was the former head of the Ministry of Regional Development and the current head of Naftogaz, Oleksii Chernyshov.

But on the same day that the vote for Chernyshov was announced by anonymous telegram channels, the media reported that NABU searched his closest associates' homes because of the land acquisition to the Flowers of Ukraine enterprise for construction.

A few weeks later, Mykhailo Tkach's investigation on UP claimed that for some reason the NABU had not complied with a court order to search Chernyshov's house and that he had met with NABU Director Semen Kryvonos before that.

"There is less and less talk about Chernyshov now. Perhaps, in the coming days, other candidates for this position will appear," said one of the interlocutors of the publication.

Oleksii Kuleba, who was previously the head of the Kyiv Regional State Administration and is now Andrii Yermak's deputy in the Presidential Office, is still a candidate for the Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development.

At the same time, if Shmyhal is replaced by Yuliia Svyrydenko, it is equally unclear who will replace her in the Ministry of Economy. The ministry itself learned about the rotation from a news story on UP.

There is also an open question about the Minister of Agrarian Policy. Currently, Taras Vysotskyi is performing the functions of the minister, but he cannot be appointed as a minister because he is also wearing a bracelet after being suspected by the NABU.

Will the appointment of Svyrydenko change anything significant for the Cabinet of Ministers?

She started her career by attracting Chinese investment for Chernihiv. In 2015, Valerii Kulich noticed her and invited her to join his team. In 2019, Svyrydenko joined the team of the Ministry of Economy, which was then headed by Tymofii Mylovanov. There, she worked on labor market legalization reform and was involved in the Big Construction projects. In 2021, she joined the President's Office to work as Andrii Yermak's deputy, and from there she was promoted to Minister of Economy. 

In recent months, the Ministry has focused on supporting the Made in Ukraine project, which aims to support Ukrainian producers.

At the same time, what Svyrydenko's ministry has done poorly so far is to reserve employees of enterprises from mobilization.

"I can say that Yulia will be less bureaucratic than Denys Shmyhal, more open to reforms and good things. She seems like a bright person to me. But, on the other hand, she will be even more loyal to the Office than Shmyhal was. And I don't know which of these will win and how it will ultimately affect on the result," the source says. 

Tetiana Nikolaienko, Censor.NET