How much Ukrainian territory did Russia seize after Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal?

The stream will be dedicated to the general situation at the front in order to understand the dynamics of changes, how the Russian offensive is developing on a large scale, what it looks like on the map in general and in certain areas, so that we have a clear picture of the situation.

General situation at the front

On 8 February 2024, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was replaced: Valerii Zaluzhnyi was replaced by Oleksandr Syrskyi. But in fact, we will assess the changes in the situation on a global, strategic level from 1 March, as Syrskyi has already gained some momentum that was already threatening in Avdiivka, the enemy had actually entered Avdiivka at the time of the replacement, and it was already impossible to hold it, of course, even for the new leadership. Therefore, we will now talk in general about how the Russians advanced, what territorial changes took place under Zaluzhnyi from 1 January 2023 to 1 March 2024.

From 1 January 2023 - I chose this date because the frontline actually stabilised by the end of 2022 - the war became a positional war along the entire frontline, and we can see where the main fighting took place. That is, from 1 January 2023 to 1 March 2024, Ukraine managed to liberate part of our land in the Southern Donbas. We know that it was a ledge that was formed in the Tokmak area, the Vremiivka ledge was cut off in the area of Velyka Novosilka, so there were certain territorial gains, in total it was about 300 square kilometres. But at the same time, during the year and three months when Valerii Zaluzhnyi was the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and active offensive actions were taking place, the enemy nevertheless managed to make serious progress in Donbas, where there is a dense agglomeration and where we had fairly favourable defence lines. In the year and three months that we have excluded as Valeriy Zaluzhny's influence and direct authority, the enemy managed to push our troops back in most parts of the Donbas frontline. These were minor advances, although the fighting was very, very fierce along this entire frontline. The enemy managed to make significant advances in two areas: near Avdiivka and near Bakhmut-Soledar. Unfortunately, the enemy managed to capture the cities of Bakhmut, Soledar and Avdiivka. Although the fighting for Avdiivka formally continued until 17 February, by the time Zaluzhnyi was replaced by Syrskyi, it was impossible to change the course of events, as there were no defence lines for any positions inside the city in the direction of the enemy's attack, and in fact, counter-attacks were already underway there.

This was the dynamic, the enemy created a ledge in the area of Avdiivka, cut off our positions, captured Avdiivka, captured Soledar-Bakhmut. These were very, very convenient lines for defence, which were held for a long time, but unfortunately, we failed to hold them.

In total, since 1 March 2024, the enemy has seized approximately 626 square kilometres of Ukrainian land, 3 cities and several villages in Donbas and Kharkiv region.

The situation from 1 March to 12 September 2024.

During this time, the enemy's advance has increased, and at the moment the enemy has expanded the front in both Donbas and Kharkiv region and seized bridgeheads right near Kharkiv and is fighting for the city of Vovchansk. The enemy has managed to capture 1239 square kilometres of Ukrainian land - this is what has already been confirmed by Assint Analytics and all open sources.

Let's see what had happened. The Russians managed to capture and expand their breakthrough in the direction of Avdiivka.

Avdiivka

The map shows the enemy's advancement zones by period. That is, it was a picture of the Russian advance - beige colour. This is the situation on 1 March. Yes, and this more intense colour is yellow. This is the situation on 1 August.

And we see that the enemy has managed to advance quite close here. Russian troops have come to the outskirts of Selydove, they have come to Pokrovsk, a distance of about 8 kilometres. They are approaching Myrnohrad, about 3 kilometres away.

And the enemy has very, very little left to the borders with the Dnipropetrovsk region, with central Ukraine. The border with the Dnipropetrovsk region is 27 kilometres away. That is as close as it gets. And we see that the enemy has approached such a large agglomeration of Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk-Selydove. If the enemy advances and captures this agglomeration, it will not only deprive us of such a key communication hub. After that, there will be no more defence lines there, and it will be convenient for the enemy to develop an offensive further to the borders with Dnipropetrovsk region based on Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Selydove. And there, they can continue to advance. So this is a very threatening, dangerous situation.

The farthest point of the enemy's advance is the village of Lysivka, from where the Russians are trying to attack Pokrovsk via the railway line. From here, it is now 27 kilometres to the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. From this view, we can see how many settlements have been captured by the enemy, including the city of Novohrodivka. It had more than 20,000 residents before the invasion. The city of Krasnohorivka was captured during this time. And we can see that in general, if we count this direction in the area of the offensive from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, the enemy has managed to capture approximately 600 square kilometres of Ukrainian land in this area since the capture of Avdiivka on 1 March. This is where the biggest advance has been made.

I would like to mention that we have had many statements from our high-ranking officials that the troops are withdrawing to pre-prepared positions. In fact, we see that these words were not confirmed by the facts. It was all a lie. There has been no retreat to prepared positions. In fact, there are heavy positional battles going on. The enemy is pushing through step by step.

And we can see that on this map, since 1 August, the Russians have actually managed to capture about 300 square kilometres in this area. This is a fairly high rate of advance for a positional war. The Russians do not know how to conduct such a blitzkrieg as the Ukrainian Armed Forces have done.

Syrskyi and defence operations

We remember the offensive operations led by Oleksandr Syrskyi in the Kharkiv region, two offensive operations in 2022, and the successful ones in the Kursk region. But while we can undoubtedly see achievements in the offensive actions of Oleksandr Syrskyi, he failed to organise the defence. And even under his watch, the situation deteriorated and the enemy's advance accelerated. And this, of course, should raise questions: Why, on such a convenient terrain, where there was a lot of time to prepare defences, because the front held Avdiivka for quite a long time, why were the positions for defence not prepared, why were they not sufficiently provided with reserves, why is the enemy managing to advance there with almost minimal effort now? And so, a certain stabilisation in this area is now relative, in fact. I heard both the President of Ukraine and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi say that there has been no advance in the Pokrovsk direction for several days. In fact, the enemy has captured and held on to more than 300 square kilometres in such heavy fighting with Ukrainian troops. The enemy has, of course, lost most of its assault units, and continues to send in reinforcements and reserves. The situation does not seem stable. Because there is no support for defensive lines.

There are serious problems, as we see, with management at the operational and tactical levels. The operational and tactical command that operates in that area, and the operational and strategic command, cannot cope with this situation. And the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, obviously, cannot devote the necessary time to take responsibility and finally intervene. I would like to say that according to the feedback from all our soldiers and commanders on the ground, the main problem in this area is not the lack of people, equipment or ammunition at all. As the first reason, all people mention the problem of managing the organisation of the troops, that is, the problem of command. This problem is not being solved.

Map of changes in the situation at Chasiv Yar

What has changed this year? 1 March - 12 September. Unfortunately, the enemy managed not only to approach the city of Chasiv Yar, but also to capture a part of Chasiv Yar, where there are high-rise buildings on the other side of the canal. And the enemy has already managed to cross the canal in some areas, creating small bridgeheads. Russian troops, as we can see, are creeping towards the city, and fighting is already taking place in Chasiv Yar itself. Our troops are making heroic efforts here. There are also problems with the use of troops in this area. But in this area, unlike in Pokrovsk, there are now coordinated brigade headquarters, and there is at least a fairly clear picture of the situation. This is very important. And a clear use of at least the forces that these capable commanders have. We see that there is also a very big advance, a threat of losing Chasiv Yar. Of course, it exists, the fighting in the city, and it is very close to the city of Kostiantynivka. Of course, we understand that if the enemy crosses the canal and captures Chasiv Yar, they will move on.

The situation in the Toretsk-New York area

New York is a village, actually a small town. The city of Toretsk is very important. The situation here deteriorated sharply in the summer, when the 24th Mechanised Brigade was suddenly redeployed from this area to Chasiv Yar. The logic of these actions is still not understood by anyone at the front. The 41st Mechanised Brigade, which had no experienced personnel, no headquarters, no experienced commander, and had a very undermined combat capability, was transferred to this area because it was transferred here from the very Chasiv Yar. The rotation turned out to be unsuccessful, because just after our troops rotated, the enemy attacked in just a couple of days and made an advance. There was a loss of control. At the moment, the enemy managed to capture the village of New York. The enemy is advancing a little further on the map. They have also managed to reach the outskirts of Toretsk, and there are battles in Toretsk. So the situation here is quite threatening, the enemy is advancing.

Enemy's advance in the Kurakhove area this year

During this time, the Russians managed to capture the entire town of Krasnohorivka, which, by the way, was not open to the enemy on the first of March. Oleksandr Syrskyi replaced the commander of the 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade, and this led, as we can see, to not quite the results that were promised in words. This significantly worsened the management and led to the loss of Krasnohorivka. I would like to remind you that Syrskyi dismissed the previous brigadier, Maksym Stetsenko, allegedly with the wording that there was one robot lost in the Pervomaisk area, but then the whole city was lost, and he still keeps the brigadier appointed by Syrskyi himself in his position. It's a very strange story. Oleksandr Syrskyi is good at planning offensive operations, but what he does in defence is just completely incomprehensible. And this deterioration in the quality of command and control of the troops has actually occurred in defence.

The enemy is advancing here, and has managed to reach the road that was a rocky road for us, the Kostiantynivka-Vuhledar road. The enemy is actually trying to use this offensive on Pokrovsk to bring down our entire front. Both Vuhledar and Kurakhove. But in this direction, Kurakhove, paratroopers are working here, the 79th Air Assault Brigade and the 46th Airmobile Brigade are working here. And we can see from the videos that there are a huge number of them, reinforced by various units, and a huge number of attacks by our soldiers. The enemy is making progress here, of course, but compared to the forces that have been destroyed here, that have been eliminated here, well, I understand that, unfortunately, there were no other options to simply hold the enemy. But I want to say that so far the enemy has not reached Kurakhove itself. And this is a great merit of our soldiers. And, obviously, there are also competent actions at the tactical level. And the actions of our commanders.

Fighting in the area of Vuhledar

Over the past month and a half, the situation in Vuhledar has deteriorated dramatically. It has gone from a difficult situation to a critical one. The enemy has actually managed to cover Vuhledar from the flanks. And if this advance in the area of Prechystivka, the territory that the enemy managed to capture over the past two weeks, all this happened after the rotation of the battalion that was standing there, again, the enemy managed to catch our troops on rotation. This is an unpleasant story that keeps repeating itself at the frontline. Catching them on rotation, attacking, capturing, this attack, in principle, does not interrupt the supply of the city. But what is happening to the east, to the north of Vuhledar, poses a big threat to us. The enemy has managed to capture two mines there, approach one mine, seize the heights and come out and actually see Vodiane. They managed to come out and make a deep coverage of Vuhledar from the north. This seriously threatens communications, the enemy is rushing to Bohoyavlenka. Once they reach Bohoyavlenka, of course, Vuhledar will be effectively surrounded and it will not be possible to hold the city for a long time. Vuhledar is under threat, the situation here is critical.

Fighting near Staromayorske

Here, the enemy managed to seize some of the land that we had taken back in battles and liberated in 2023. But the 58th Brigade, which holds this area, simply knocked out a huge number of Russian troops in this area. Urozhaine, Staromayorske - they have been simply demolished. There is nothing there, even the basements have been demolished. Dozens of Russian armour units have been destroyed. Our troops have withdrawn here because it is impossible to hold on where everything is burnt and destroyed. But fierce fighting is continuing here, the enemy is being held back, and attacks are taking place.

The situation in the Kharkiv region

The Russian offensive, which was launched on 10 May, led to the following results. In fact, since 1 August, the enemy has made very little progress. On 10 May, their advance here was simply negligible, very small. And Vovchansk itself, where Russian troops entered on 13 May, has been in fighting since then, the city has not been completely captured by the enemy. There are heavy battles going on here, the enemy is suffering very heavy losses, the Russians are being destroyed with all their might.

In certain areas, for example, near the village of Lyptsi, even our soldiers also made progress, it is not marked on the map, but the enemy was near Lyptsi, entered the outskirts and is now 3 kilometres away. Our troops control the situation here, the enemy has suffered heavy losses and continues to do so. In principle, there is no critical situation here, but the Ukrainian city of Vovchansk is still under fire, and at least half of the city is captured by the enemy.

The situation in the Borova-Svatove area

The situation here is very complicated because the enemy has advanced in several areas, and each advance here, each landing, greatly improves the Russian situation, because the enemy is advancing, controlling the ridge of heights in the Svatove area. That is, it is very convenient for them to operate with drones, and our troops are working from the lowlands. Borova is defended in a lowland, it is located in a lowland. And, of course, it's very difficult to conduct defence when the enemy has an advantage in height, which now allows drones to work better.

The situation in this area is critical in the vicinity of Pishchane, the northern point. Unfortunately, the enemy managed to break through our front there. And thanks to this, the Russians managed to get about 4.5 kilometres to the Oskil River. The strategic goal of the Russian command in this area is to reach the Oskil line, to drive our troops beyond Oskil. This will allow the Russians to threaten Izium directly and flank our Lyman grouping and improve their positions. And this, of course, will be a very, very difficult situation for us. There are heavy battles going on here, and the critical situation, I emphasise, is right in the area of Pishchane. The Russians are trying to advance there, to expand this breakthrough.

Kupiansk district

The enemy is also rushing to Kupiansk. This is the most dangerous place. There is a fight north of Kupiansk for the heights and forests near Synkivka, Lyman One. There are very heavy battles there. Whoever controls those forests and heights controls the approaches to Kupiansk. And we see that south of Kupiansk, the enemy is approaching Oskil. If they reach Oskil in the Pishchane area, they will then go up to Kupiansk from below. This is a very dangerous situation.

Situation in the area of Siversk

Very rarely do people talk about Siversk, we rarely hear any complaints. But all this is only because the soldiers of the 54th Mechanised Brigade, reinforced by the battalion tactical group of the 4th Brigade of the National Guard, are fighting heroically on this ledge. The "Svoboda" battalion is also there now. It is in this area, the most important and dangerous area, where they are fighting heroically. The line where the enemy has not managed to capture anything - from Bilohorivka to Spirne. The enemy has not captured anything on this line for so long. So, I want to tell you that this is the frontline configuration line in this area, it has been in place since the summer of 2022. Why is it like this? Because this is where the K-2 mechanised battalion is positioned. The battalion is under the command of a Ukrainian hero, a hero of Ukraine, Kyrylo Veres. It is Commander Veres and his team, his battalion, which has very advanced drones, electronic warfare equipment, and a lot of volunteer help. The K-2 battalion is holding its ground and the enemy is not able to break through. The National Guard has also been holding Spirne for a long time. And it would seem that the enemy has surrounded Spirne from all sides. But the enemy cannot enter it. Because there have also been very heavy battles there for two years. Don't think that there are no attacks there, the enemy attacks almost continuously. But thanks to the high-quality organisation, management, interaction of our troops, and the correct and effective use of drones, this entire area is holding. And it should be noted that Bilohorivka, the edge of that ledge, is being heroically held by the soldiers of the 81st Air Assault Brigade. The enemy managed to capture it and advance a very short distance with huge losses. Nevertheless, the Russians were stopped there again. This is a great heroism, the achievement of our soldiers, they are holding back a very large force of Russian troops. The Russian command is rushing to Siversk, trying to cut off this balcony, the so-called Siverskyi balcony, but they are not succeeding. And we need to thank everyone that there are no battles for Siversk in the reports, but only because the soldiers of the 81st Air Assault Brigade, the K2 battalion, the entire 54th Mechanised Brigade, the National Guard, Brigade 38, and other attached units are fighting silently and heroically. Many thanks to these true Ukrainian heroes. This is an example not only of heroism, but also of adequate command and control at the tactical level, which is worth noting.

So, thank you for this review. We have reviewed the frontline, the main things that have happened. As for the dynamics of the Russian offensive, of course, the enemy is trying to push through the frontline and focus on bringing down the entire Southern Donbas, and the threat now is that fighting is either in the vicinity or right within 12 Ukrainian cities. It's a very difficult situation, and we need stabilisation efforts and proper defence organisation, but this cannot be solved by throwing infantry into the ground and defence, head-on, in exchange for infantry that is thrown into the offensive. This is not the way to solve the problem; we need to fight the superiority of Russian troops the way our effective formations fight.

If you look at the map, there are stable areas of the frontline, and all this is held not because the enemy does not attack there, but because it is very expensive for the enemy to attack there, and they get through where, unfortunately, there are problems with the organisation of troop management. The 3rd Assault Brigade is an example of this, and indeed, if you look at the Borova area, the enemy did not manage to advance there, but on the contrary, the soldiers of the 3rd Assault Brigade knocked the enemy out. But we understand that this is a volunteer brigade that has been formed since 2014.

I would also like to draw attention to those units that are part of the regular army. There is no need to point the finger at the Third Assault Brigade, which is made up of volunteers, with Biletskyi and his experience in command. And there is, for example, the K-2 battalion in such an important area - Kyrylo Veres. It's an ordinary linear battalion, not an elite mechanised brigade at all. Isn't it possible to scale this experience to the entire army? Of course, it is possible. Its experience in organising defence, in defence planning, in creating enemy strike zones, in organising reconnaissance, in the interaction of infantry and drones, in the density and effectiveness of the use of drones in the area, in mining. All this can be done. If it can be done in the 54th Brigade, it means that this experience can be scaled up anywhere. And we need to pay attention to this, because war is not just a strategy. If we went in and captured 1,200 square kilometres in the Kursk region, it does not mean that Sudzha, with a population of 5,000, will completely cover or somehow at least partially compensate for the loss of huge agglomerations of dozens of settlements and dozens of cities in Donbas. Of course, these are absolutely unequal things, and we need to understand that the defence of Donbas and the defence of Kharkiv region is an absolute priority for Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation.

Therefore, the situation on the frontline requires real attention, and I would just like to draw the attention of Oleksandr Syrskyi to the fact that as carefully as he treats the offensive, he must take responsibility for the defence. Because if you compare him to his predecessor, his level of command and control of the defence is inferior to that of his predecessor. Although, in fact, during the replacement, they said that there should be stabilisation: Syrskyi would come and restore order. There were such hopes, but we see that there are problems. Oleksandr Syrskyi needs to respond to this if he does not want to be replaced so easily.

Zaluzhnyi was removed after Avdiivka, when the enemy had already entered Avdiivka. Now we already have a number of towns and cities where the Russians have entered. We are facing the threat of losing a large number of settlements and cities in Donbass. I do not understand why the leadership is so calm about this. I hope that measures will be taken to address this very disturbing dynamic, this critical dynamic that we see in Donbas, and that efforts will be made to ensure that the experience of our best troops and commanders will allow us to build a proper defence, not in words, as is constantly said in press releases and in evening addresses after the meeting. Not in words. We need to stop these constant advances in the Pokrovsk direction. We need to prevent the enemy from continuing to crawl further. There are still opportunities to organise defence. There are commanders in the Ukrainian army. There are a large number of them.

The need to scale successful defence experience

I could show you half an hour of broadcasting right now about the situation in each area, how they stopped, advanced, and are advancing. There are heavy battles in every section of the frontline. And there are people who know how to organise the chaos, how to properly organise people, how to prepare them, how to use troops correctly and achieve results. To destroy these small assault groups that come with drones and artillery support. To destroy and not let the enemy move on. And we need this experience now. Generals, commanders, and the office of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief should be held accountable, not for reports, not for evening addresses, but for results. Ukraine needs results, not talk. So far, unfortunately, we have seen a lot of PR, which is not confirmed by practice. And the result is on the map. This is what we need to watch and study.

The dynamics of the enemy's advance is increasing. Although we see the numbers of Russian losses. They are not endless. There are also regiments of 200-300 people already on the attack. They are already throwing everybody. In Lysivka, an entire UAV unit in one of the Russian regiments was destroyed. They sent all the operators to the infantry. And our guys covered them during the attack. So, everything is possible. We can stop the Russian offensive. We have commanders who know how to stop and destroy the Russian occupiers. Moreover, with much smaller forces and with much smaller losses. If you look at the ratio of forces in the K2 battalion's strip, the ratio of enemy casualties is plus 10, maybe even plus 12. Because the losses are simply many times, many times greater. And we have this successful experience to rely on and believe not in words, but in those successful combat leaders who have grown up in Ukraine. Those heroes who hold the frontline in terribly difficult conditions. But they are holding on with their skills, first and foremost their intelligence, their will. And we must unite around those effective commanders, those leaders who are leading soldiers into battle, who are holding the front line, destroying the enemy, who need the support of the entire Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian state. Support for efficiency, not PR effects.

Friends, today I am more confident than ever in our victory. I believe in our soldiers, in our commanders, who are efficient, professional and destroy the Russian occupiers every day. Thank you for the broadcast. Glory to Ukraine!