Will Ukrainian army be left without potatoes
The Ukrainian army may be left without potatoes. And this is not hype, but rather a warning. Because the price of potatoes included in the current contracts is currently categorically out of line with market trends.
The last auction for army food was held by the DOT in June and August. The price of potatoes was set at UAH 10 in the price catalogue, and was reduced by most suppliers to UAH 8. The contracts of the State Logistics Operator provide for a downward revision of the price in line with the fluctuations in the State Statistics Service's prices, but the supplier cannot refuse the price.
This story irritated some suppliers back in August, because the price of potatoes was already 10.
But a month later it got worse.
The potatoes didn't grow. It was the weather. First, it froze in May, then there was a drought.
Unlike the farmers, the peasants started digging potatoes a month ago and found that there was at least one and a half times less than last year. Even then, the price of potatoes at Kyiv markets went up sharply - from 15 to 25 hryvnias.
But the garden harvest was not yet relevant for market assessment. Moreover, the agricultural businessmen and officials with whom the author spoke a month ago were quietly optimistic.
"I think the situation will be like last year. There was a poor harvest on the Left Bank, and a good one on the Right Bank. So I think many suppliers will be happy to give away potatoes for 8 UAH. Don't worry," the source told Censor.NET in early September.
But three weeks later, the situation became much worse.
Earlier, Ihor Shkurko, director of "Chernihivelitkartoplia", said that the potato harvest in 2024 would be lower than last year.
The heat led to the development of diseases that prevented potatoes from gaining weight.
In addition, the high temperatures in August do not allow everyone to dig potatoes. Because if you put hot potatoes in storage, you can get a lot of problems.
To avoid them, you need to provide good ventilation and cooling for the tubers. And this is quite a big expense. So far, potato growers are not in a hurry to dig potatoes, the farmer says.
His forecast is that potatoes will rise in price in February to UAH 30.
Sources in the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food promise a potato price of 15 UAH, with an upward trend to 20 UAH.
"If a month ago I told you that UAH 8 would be a normal price for buying potatoes in autumn and farmers were ready to sell them, now everything has changed. No one thought that in mid-August it would be plus 25 and that potatoes would not be able to be dug. Moreover, it used to be possible to balance it by importing it from Poland, where it was available in bulk at UAH 5-6, but due to the floods in Poland, they are not digging it there either," the source said.
In his opinion, the price of potatoes can only be expected to fall in winter, when farmers will not be able to store them due to a lack of electricity.
Today, potatoes at the Capital's market cost UAH 17-20.
However, as the DOT assured us, it is still being delivered to military units. In fact, suppliers are balanced by other profitable positions.
And here's the thing: the catalogue still contains items that can cover UAH 8 per kg of other products.
Secondly, it is still unclear how long they will overlap.
Contracts with suppliers contain such a provision regarding price revisions:
"The Parties have mutually agreed that in accordance with subparagraph 7 of paragraph 19 of the Peculiarities of Public Procurement of Goods, Works and Services for Customers, provided for by the Law of Ukraine "On Public Procurement", for the period of martial law in Ukraine and within 90 days from the date of its termination or cancellation, approved by the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated 12 October 2022 No. 1178, the total price of the Goods and/or the price per unit of the Goods under this Agreement, which is specified in the Specification (Annex No. 1), shall be revised by the Parties upwards/downwards in case the consumer price index for goods and services (to the previous month) for the entire territory of Ukraine of the section "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" is set at less than 98% and/or more than 102%, respectively."
At the same time, while the downward price is revised by the parties "in proportion to the change in the current average prices for foodstuffs according to the Food Catalogue2 in case of a change in such average price by more than ten (10) per cent", the upward price is subject to a completely different rule.
"If the current price of the food item at which the CUSTOMER places an order is lower than the price of the food item, taking into account the current average prices in grocery supermarkets, the price of such food item shall not be revised by the Parties," the agreement says.
And since under the new contracts, suppliers pay only 0.1% for shortages, there is every chance that potatoes will be in short supply within a month.
Of course, potatoes are not a critical product - they can be replaced with porridge, for example.
However, given the situation in the energy sector, such fluctuations may also occur with other products.
This raises the question of the feasibility of further contracting for six months.
Tetiana Nikolaienko, Censor. NET
